AA 727 · DFW → SEA

departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 4:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.20 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 727 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?