AA 781 · NAP → PHL

departs 12:01 PM CEST · arrives 4:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

NAP (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 781 · NAP → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?