AA 801 · PHL → AUS

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 11:19 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 801 · PHL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?