AA 813 · DFW → EWR

departs 11:49 AM CT · arrives 4:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
25%
Cancelled
13%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.15 in

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 813 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?