AA 819 · JFK → PHX

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 819 · JFK → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?