Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 832 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 832 · PHX → JFK

departs 3:51 PM MT · arrives 11:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±2 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 832 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?