AA 888 · AUS → PHL

departs 12:07 PM CT · arrives 5:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precip2.02 in

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 888 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?