AA 902 · MCO → LGA

departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 902 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?