AA 903 · ORD → LGA

departs 11:31 AM CT · arrives 2:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 903 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?