Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 996 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 996 · ORD → PHL

departs 9:45 AM CT · arrives 12:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 996 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?