AS 1013 · HNL → LIH

departs 7:10 AM HT · arrives 7:50 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.65 in

LIH (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1013 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?