Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1019 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1019 · ITO → OGG

departs 8:30 AM HT · arrives 9:10 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ 8am departures from ITO are usually not late

Weather at each end

ITO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1019 · ITO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?