AS 1028 · HNL → KOA

departs 7:13 AM HT · arrives 7:59 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1028 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?