AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

departs 12:16 PM HT · arrives 1:06 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1049 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?