AS 1054 · LIH → HNL

departs 11:14 AM HT · arrives 11:53 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ 11am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.15 in

HNL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1054 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?