AS 1056 · HNL → OGG

departs 8:50 AM HT · arrives 9:31 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.19 in

OGG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1056 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?