AS 1093 · HNL → LIH

departs 2:55 PM HT · arrives 3:38 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1.46429 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.48 in

LIH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1093 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?