AS 1105 · OGG → HNL

departs 11:27 AM HT · arrives 12:09 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1105 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?