Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1112 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1112 · HNL → ITO

departs 7:20 PM HT · arrives 8:13 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ITO is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ 7pm departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ITO that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

ITO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1112 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?