Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1120 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1120 · LIH → KOA

departs 5:02 PM HT · arrives 5:55 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.48 in

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1120 · LIH → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?