Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1122 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1122 · HNL → ITO

departs 9:05 PM HT · arrives 9:59 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ITO is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into ITO at that hour are usually not late

↓ 9pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.31 in

ITO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1122 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?