Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1129 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1129 · OGG → ITO

departs 5:39 PM HT · arrives 6:17 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ITO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1129 · OGG → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?