Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1154 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1154 · LIH → HNL

departs 7:21 PM HT · arrives 7:58 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ 7pm departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.27 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1154 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?