Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1158 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1158 · HNL → KOA

departs 5:30 PM HT · arrives 6:16 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
40%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ 5pm departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1158 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?