Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AS 1164 · LIH → HNL

departs 8:03 PM HT · arrives 8:40 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 8pm departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.12 in

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1164 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?