Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1165 · OGG → HNL

departs 5:59 PM HT · arrives 6:38 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1165 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?