Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1168 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1168 · HNL → KOA

departs 6:45 PM HT · arrives 7:31 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↓ 6pm departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.27 in

KOA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1168 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?