Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1186 · HNL → OGG

departs 6:27 PM HT · arrives 7:08 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ 6pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.37 in

OGG (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling10,429 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1186 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?