Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1216 · HNL → OGG

departs 9:00 PM HT · arrives 9:41 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

OGG (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1216 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?