Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 121 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 121 · SEA → HNL

departs 4:20 PM PT · arrives 7:16 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 121 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?