Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 122 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 122 · HNL → SEA

departs 9:20 PM HT · arrives 5:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 122 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?