Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1250 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1250 · OGG → KOA

departs 3:54 PM HT · arrives 4:28 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1250 · OGG → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?