Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1260 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1260 · LIH → OGG

departs 2:30 PM HT · arrives 3:19 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

OGG (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1260 · LIH → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?