Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1300 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1300 · SEA → LAX

departs 3:59 PM PT · arrives 6:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1300 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?