AS 1318 · PDX → STL

departs 11:12 AM PT · arrives 4:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from PDX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling467 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1318 · PDX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?