Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1321SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1321 · SEA → STS
departs 9:54 AM PT · arrives 11:58 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
15%chance · ±0 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.