Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Thursday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1340 SCHEDULED

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1340 · SFO → SEA

departs 3:50 PM PT · arrives 6:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1340 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?