AS 1373 · SAN → SEA

departs 4:52 PM PT · arrives 7:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1373 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?