Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1385SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1385 · SEA → SFO
departs 4:36 PM PT · arrives 6:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
25%chance · ±1 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.