Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1433 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1433 · SEA → GEG

departs 5:51 PM PT · arrives 7:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1433 · SEA → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?