Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1438 · AKN → ANC

departs 2:05 PM AKT · arrives 3:14 PM AKT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 2pm departures from AKN are usually not late

↓ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

Weather at each end

AKN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1438 · AKN → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?