Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1452 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1452 · HNL → BUR

departs 10:31 AM HT · arrives 7:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ 10am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

BUR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1452 · HNL → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?