AS 1464 · ANC → SEA

departs 12:17 PM AKT · arrives 4:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ 12pm departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1464 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?