Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1478 · SAN → ORD

departs 12:40 PM PT · arrives 6:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±10 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1478 · SAN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?