Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1532 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1532 · PHX → ANC

departs 6:32 PM MT · arrives 11:21 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1532 · PHX → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?