Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1538 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1538 · STL → PDX

departs 5:37 PM CT · arrives 7:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±7 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 5pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1538 · STL → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?