Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1543 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1543 · ANC → ORD

departs 11:15 PM AKT · arrives 8:29 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.02 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1543 · ANC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?