Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1544 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AS 1544 · ANC → OME

departs 3:25 PM AKT · arrives 5:01 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OME more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OME?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OME

↓ OME usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

OME (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1544 · ANC → OME

Odds over time

How late will it get to OME?