Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1545 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1545 · ORD → ANC

departs 12:59 AM CT · arrives 4:41 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 12am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1545 · ORD → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?