Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1573 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1573 · SEA → IAH

departs 5:33 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1573 · SEA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?